Offensive realism, thucydides traps, and the tragedy of unforced errors: classical realism and US–China relations

Abstract

The emergence of China as a great power, and its implications for International Relations, especially with regard its relations with the United States and the prospects for conflict between the two powers, is one of the most pressing problems in world politics. Unfortunately, two of the most prominent contributions, which have gained widespread attention and popularity—Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? by Graham Allison, and John Mearsheimer’s The Tragedy of Great Power Politics—are fundamentally flawed in their analytical approach and dangerous in their policy advice. In this paper I will review the problematic aspects of these influential arguments, and argue that a perspective grounded in classical realism, more closely associated with the work of Robert Gilpin, offers a more productive approach to understanding this enormous challenge.