Off-Cycle and Out of Office: Election Timing, Incumbency, and Electoral Accountability

Abstract

Democratic accountability relies on the ability of citizens to reward and punish politicians in elections. Electoral institutions, such as the timing of elections, may play a powerful role in enabling this process. In this paper, I assess how on-cycle (concurrent) and off-cycle elections affect one facet of accountability -- the incumbency advantage -- using data on nearly 10,000 mayoral elections in cities over the past 60 years. Using a regression discontinuity design, I find that incumbency carries a substantial advantage for individual candidates. Moreover, I find that on-cycle elections provide incumbents with a far larger advantage than off-cycle elections do. These results show that off-cycle elections, otherwise criticized for their negative effects, may have an upshot for democracy, and demonstrate one possible mechanism for the prevalence of the incumbency advantage.