Off the Endangered List: Philippine Democratization in Comparative Perspective

Abstract

The Philippines has long been on the most endangered list of new democracies. There have been more coup attempts (eight) in the Philippines than in any other wave democratizer.' It is one of only few states to still face Communist insurgency. Moreover, many civilian, noncommunist politicians were openly disloyal to the government of Corazon C. Aquino, including her vice president, Salvador H. Laurel. These political problems are compounded by socioeconomic difficulties. The Philippines is plagued by extreme poverty and inequality, high debt, and low growth, as well as by ethnic conflict (not to mention the series of natural disasters that has aggravated many of these factors), leading it to be ranked as one of the four new democracies outside of Africa facing the worst structural woes.2 Former President Aquino made little progress in remedying these problems: the economy lagged ever further behind its fast growing neighbors in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and only very limited social, particularly land, reform was undertaken. Michael Burton, Richard Gunther, and John Higley in their comparative study of democratization described the Philippines as a graphic instance of democracy that remains unconsolidated.13 Yet something peculiar happened on the way to what appeared to be the inevitable breakdown of democracy in the Philippines. Since the failed December 1989 coup there have been no significant armed challenges to the democratic regime. Instead, dwindling New People's Army, largely inactive Muslim separatist movement, and few isolated military rebels were self-destructing through internal factional struggles while negotiating from position of weakness with the government. Fidel V. Ramos's election as president in May 1992 was also clear sign of growing political stability. Although he won with the tiniest of pluralities (23.6 percent), five of his six major opponents conceded defeat, which is quite unusual in country where cries of electoral fraud are long established ritual. Ramos, whose Lakas-National Union of Christian Democrats party won less than fourth of the seats in the house of representatives and placed only third in the number of senators elected, was nonetheless able to establish working relationship with both houses of congress. The recent successes of Philippine democracy can be understood only in the context of its previous difficulties. Relatively little has been written about the