Of hip fractures in the population of Belgrade during the period 1990- 2000. Projections for 2020

Abstract

The aim of this survey was estimation of incidence of hip fractures in the population of Belgrade during the period from 1990 to 2000, as well as the estimation of expected numbers and incidence of hip fractures for 2010 and 2020, based on linear trend models. Our investigation included 8139 subjects (29% males and 71% females) with hip fractures aged 50 and more, who hospitalized at all Clinics and Departmets of Orthopedics and Traumatology in Belgrade, during the period 1990-2000. In epidemiological analysis, sex- and age-specific incidence rates and standardized (according to the US standard population) rates were calculated. The average number of hip fractures in male and female populations of Belgrade aged 50 and more were 214 and 525 new cases per year, respectively (total 739). The average incidence rates were 84.9/100,000 for males, 167.3/100,000 for females, and 118.6/100,000 for both sexes. During the period observed, incidence of hip fractures showed statistically significant increase (y=111.88+3.11x, p=0.024), especially among females (y=135.94+5.23x, p=0.007). Age-specific incidence rates of hip fractures strongly related with age, and the highest values were registrated in the age group 80 and more for both sexes (505.2/100,000-for males and (1042.8/100,000 for females). Among Belgrade inhabitants aged 50 and more, the increasing number of hip fractures could be expected up to 2020, 23.7% for males and 128.8% for females.