Odelling the Effect of Population on Rice Production, Consumption and Importation in Nigeria: Vector Autoregressive Model

Abstract

One major factor of Economic Development of any nation is food security as the population is on increase in Nigeria. Imposition of barn and closure of border had led to increase in price, smuggling, and hoarding of rice among other problems. Diverse statistical studies had been carried out in many nation of Africa on how to improve rice production without much success. Vector Autoregressive time series modeling is proposed to analyse the relationship between population and rice production, importation, and consumption. The stationarity test reveals that only population got stationarity at first difference while others attain stationarity at zero differencing. Granger causality reported that population, rice production and importation Granger cause rate of rice consumption rate in Nigeria and in essence population, production, and importation of rice has significant effect on consumption. Important recommendation were made to enhance availability of rice for consumption