Ode to Bayesian methods in metrology

Abstract

Bayesian statistical methods are being used increasingly often in measurement science, similarly to how they now pervade all the sciences, from astrophysics to climatology, and from genetics to social sciences. Within metrology, the use of Bayesian methods is documented in peer-reviewed publications that describe the development of certified reference materials or the characterization of CIPM key comparison reference values and the associated degrees of equivalence. This contribution reviews Bayesian concepts and methods, and provides guidance for how they can be used in measurement science, illustrated with realistic examples of application. In the process, this review also provides compelling evidence to the effect that the Bayesian approach offers unparalleled means to exploit all the information available that is relevant to rigorous and reliable measurement. The Bayesian outlook streamlines the interpretation of uncertainty evaluations, aligning their meaning with how they are perceived intuitively: not as promises about performance in the long run, but as expressions of documented and justified degrees of belief about the truth of specific conclusions supported by empirical evidence. This review also demonstrates that the Bayesian approach is practicable using currently available modeling and computational techniques, and, most importantly, that measurement results obtained using Bayesian methods, and predictions based on Bayesian models, including the establishment of metrological traceability, are amenable to empirical validation, no less than when classical statistical methods are used for the same purposes. Our goal is not to suggest that everything in metrology should be done in a Bayesian way. Instead, we aim to highlight applications and kinds of metrological problems where Bayesian methods shine brighter than the classical alternatives, and deliver results that any classical approach would be hard-pressed to match.