Abstract
Carbon dioxide rise, swing and spread (seasonal fluctuations) are addressed in this study. Actual CO2 concentrations were used rather than dry values. The dry values are artificially higher because water vapor must be removed in order for the NDIR instrument to work and is not factored back into the reported numbers. Articles addressing these observations express opinions that are divergent and often conflicting. This investigation resolves many of those inconsistencies. The data were obtained from many measuring stations at various latitudes since 1972 and then graphical compared to changes in sea temperatures, fossil fuel emissions, humidity, and seasonal ice and snow changes. In analyzing the data, various parameters were addressed including: variability, R squared curve values, correlations between curves, residence times, absorption percentages, and Troposphere effects. Mass balance calculations were also made to corroborate viability. The CO2 “rise” over a 33-year period from a slight ocean temperature increase (0.7°F) contributed 2.3 percent of the total rise while fossil fuel emissions contributed 1.5 percent. The overwhelming majority (60 ppmv, 96%+) was caused by other factors including ocean and land biology as well potential errors in fundamental hypotheses. With respect to “spread” (seasonal CO2 fluctuations) at the Polar Circles, graphical analysis with high correlations supported by mass balance calculations confirm that ice and snow are the primary cause and explain why the concentrations are the highest at these cold locations. The global variations in “swing” remain uncertain.
Highlights
In summary: 1) the graphic correlation set forth in Figure 20 indicates that the CO2 rise and emissions curves did not match; 2) the mass flow calculations showed that fossil fuels could produce more CO2 than was necessary, but more information is needed as to the actual absorption percentages; 3) the total amount of CO2 released in the air and the total amount absorbed each year supports a 98.48% absorption rate, 4) the actual short term observations set forth in Figure 25, infra, supports a high absorption rate, 5) the Troposphere effect shown in Figure 22 supports a high absorption rate, and 6) the hemispheric balance shown in Table 2 supports a high absorption rate
The lack of a graphical relationship between emissions and CO2 concentrations, the fact that the Azores curve showed no measurable response to the US emissions when compared over multiple years and multiple stations, and the lack of scientific studies to the contrary, supports the conclusion that there is no likely connection between fossil fuel emissions and seasonal fluctuations. 3.5.4
The actual concentrations are similar to the dry values but shifted lower with the downward shift becoming larger as the latitude decreases
Summary
Charles Keeling meticulously studied carbon dioxide variations from the Mauna Loa. Observatory in Hawaii and penned the famous “Keeling Curve”. The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a division of the UN) lists the largest atmospheric CO2 exchanges, i.e. the total of emissions (sources) and absorptions (sinks) Included in this list are oceans at 182 GtC/yr, land plant biology at 102 GtC/yr and land soils at 100 GtC/yr. Some scientists used the inverse land/air temperature relationship as a proxy for a biological connection, i.e. as the temperature goes up, land plants grow and consume CO2 by photosynthesis (sink) None of these studies have adequately answered the question as to why the North and South Polar Regions each have the highest CO2 concentration, or how a lack of land bio-masses within 1000 kilometers of either pole could cause such a high concentration. It provides an explanation for why these cold regions record the highest CO2 concentrations
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