Oceanic Rossby wave predictability in ECMWF's subseasonal‐to‐seasonal reforecasts

Abstract

AbstractIn recent years, studies have put forth various theories on the role of oceanic equatorial Rossby waves (OERW) in the subseasonal‐to‐seasonal (S2S) predictability of the Indian Ocean (IO). While much of the scientific literature uses data from in‐situ, satellite, and/or reanalysis datasets, this study focuses on reforecast fields from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasting's (ECMWF) S2S dataset. Evaluation of the model's predictive skill in representing OERWs and the associated variations in subsurface‐to‐surface interaction and air–sea coupling are discussed. This work provides a unique methodology to calculate and evaluate the predictability of OERWs from model forecast data. Our results indicate that the model forecasts OERWs with high skill (anomaly correlation > 0.8 out to 40 days), indicating they are a key source of oceanic subseasonal predictability at extended lead times. Analysis of the wavenumber–frequency spectra for the IO indicates a strong reduction in power throughout the model forecast time period in the oceanic equatorial Kelvin wave (OEKW) regime and modest reduction of the OERW power. Both Kelvin and Rossby waves are modulated by the subseasonal zonal wind stress anomalies and the reduction of power is impacted by biases in winds at longer forecast leads. The erroneous weakening of the OEKWs contributes to the weakening of the reflected OERWs. Previous studies have documented that ocean heat content (OHC), particularly associated with downwelling OERWs, is important to maintaining and amplifying subseasonal precipitation in the IO. The reduced OERW power results in weaker advection of enhanced OHC anomalies by the OERWs, which has numerous implications for air–sea and subsurface‐to‐surface coupling, as discussed. The atmospheric response to the waning westward transport of OHC anomalies in the western IO by OERWs is associated with a weakening of intraseasonal precipitation anomalies associated with the intraseasonal oscillation.