Oceanic passage of hurricanes across Cay Sal Bank in The Bahamas over the last 530 years

Abstract

Islands across the Bahamian Archipelago have been devastated by five major hurricanes from 2010 to 2020 CE, including Category 5 Hurricane Dorian in 2019 that inundated parts of Abaco and Grand Bahama with up to 4 m of surge, killing 84 people and leaving >245 others missing. Up to 1 m relative sea-level rise is estimated for The Bahamas by 2100 CE, which could enhance flooding from weaker storms (<Category 3) in low-lying coastal areas. Problematically, Bahamian hurricane activity is highly spatially-heterogenous over the last 170 years, meaning that long-term regional hurricane frequency remains poorly constrained, especially for weaker Category 1–2 events that are less-likely to be detected by most sediment-based paleo-hurricane reconstructions. We present a 530-year record of hurricane passage from Hine's Blue Hole on Cay Sal Bank, The Bahamas. Hine's Hole has an accumulation rate of 2–3.2 cm/yr, making it among the highest-resolution hurricane reconstructions to date. Unlike many paleo-hurricane reconstruction sites, Hine's Hole is not surrounded by coastal landmasses that can dampen currents and waves produced by hurricanes, so it archives most ≥Category 1 hurricanes passing within 115 km during the 170-year instrumental record (1850 CE-present) and may also document intense tropical or winter storms. Hine's Hole archives ~16 intense storms per century from 1850 to 2016 CE, but documents three periods from 1505 to 1530 CE, 1570 to 1620 CE, and ~ 1710 to 1875 CE with over twice as many intense storms per century. These active periods correspond to other high-resolution reconstructions from the Bahamian Archipelago and Florida Keys, but the magnitude of the increase is much higher given that Hine's Hole archives evidence of weaker and more distal storms. As such, this reconstruction provides unprecedented insight into changes in hurricane activity within the pre-industrial climate system and demonstrates that recurrence intervals based on the 170-year instrumental record can severely underestimate the threat hurricanes pose certain localities.