Abstract
The Pacific and Atlantic oceanic influences on observational rainfall data from weather stations over Venezuela are analyzed using Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) executed in the Climate Predictability Tool. CCA is further conducted on rainfall and sea surface temperature data obtained from the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) for historical (1951–2010) and future (2041–2100) periods. Four oceanic regions (North Tropical Atlantic, Nino3, Nino3.4 and an area which includes all previous three) are used for the CCA using data from the Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) data set, while precipitation data from two regions: a coastal region and an inland region are used in the analysis. Venezuelan seasons (dry and wet) were separated into an early and a late period. The oceanic impact on the precipitation of the station data is, in the majority of the cases, higher in the inland than at the coast. The Pacific’s influence is stronger in the early dry season than in the wet season, whereas the Atlantic’s influence is stronger in the wet season (inland). In contrast, CCA applied to the model data provides highest correlation coefficients in the late wet season for all oceanic regions. In most cases the North Tropical Atlantic has a stronger influence than the Nino regions.
Highlights
1.1 BackgroundVenezuela is located in the north of South America, in the tropics between 0.7°N–12.2°N and 59.8°N–73.4°N
The precipitation of the station data in Vargas in the late dry season and in Bolívar in the wet seasons is more strongly influenced by the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) than by the Niño regions (Table 2)
The results of the stations data compared to the ones of the model data show less cases where Pac–Atl has the highest correlation coefficient, the season with the highest correlation is more variable, and the strength of the correlation is higher in Bolívar than in Vargas
Summary
Venezuela is located in the north of South America, in the tropics between 0.7°N–12.2°N and 59.8°N–73.4°N. Venezuela’s capital city, has a population of about 8 million people. About 40 % of the population lives on the hillsides surrounding the city with rather poor housing conditions. These huge suburbs called bar‐ rios, are highly vulnerable to damages due to impacts from extreme rainfall. Extreme precipitation can cause landslides which in turn can cause considerable destruction. The whole coast was affected and important roadways were destroyed. The strong influence of precipitation, especially of extreme events, on the life and infrastructure of Venezuela reveals the importance of further investigation
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