Abstract
The SET-Plan declaration of intent for ocean energy has set ambitious targets for wave and tidal energy technologies. Tidal technologies are expected to reach a levelised cost of energy (LCOE) of 15 cEUR/kWh by 2025. To meet this target, technology costs need to be reduced by about 75 % from 2016 values. Cost-reduction of tidal technologies is expected to go hand in hand with technology deployment and further technology validation gained by the operation of first-of-a-kind tidal farms. In this paper we assess the learning investment needed to support the cost-reduction of tidal energy to meet the 2025 SET-Plan targets. The learning investment necessary to bring tidal energy to cost-competitiveness would be of about EUR 1.45 billion, requiring about 3.2 GW of installed capacity to achieve the LCOE target of 15 cEUR/kWh. Supporting the step growth for the sector requires the design of accompanying policies aimed at the industrialisation of the sector to support the creation of assembly and manufacturing facilities.
Highlights
The ocean energy sector has made considerable progress over the past few years
In addition to existing support systems, novel R&D and financial instruments need to be identified to support the development of wave energy technology and to help reduce the risk associated with demonstration farms
The current cost of tidal and wave energy technology has to be reduced by 75% and 85% respectively to meet the targets agreed in the SET-Plan
Summary
The ocean energy sector has made considerable progress over the past few years. Significant developments have taken place in the EU and Canada, with the deployment of the first tidal energy demonstration farms, a milestone for the creation of the ocean energy market. The current cost of tidal and wave energy technology has to be reduced by 75% and 85% respectively to meet the targets agreed in the SET-Plan. We estimate the financing needs of tidal energy to understand what would be the investments needs in technology and enabling services (from public and private sources) necessary for the ocean energy sector to meet the SET-Plan targets by 2025. This analysis is complemented with an assessment of supply chain involvement that would facilitate the industrial roll out needed to match the different deployment trajectories. The roadmaps developed by the Ocean Energy Forum [3] and by the European Technology and Innovation Platform [4] for ocean energy have identified key actions for making ocean energy a commercial reality in the EU and on a global stage
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