Abstract
Elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) is causing global ocean changes and drives changes in organism physiology, life-history traits, and population dynamics of natural marine resources. However, our knowledge of the mechanisms and consequences of ocean acidification (OA) – in combination with other climatic drivers (i.e., warming, deoxygenation) – on organisms and downstream effects on marine fisheries is limited. Here, we explored how the direct effects of multiple changes in ocean conditions on organism aerobic performance scales up to spatial impacts on fisheries catch of 210 commercially exploited marine invertebrates, known to be susceptible to OA. Under the highest CO2 trajectory, we show that global fisheries catch potential declines by as much as 12% by the year 2100 relative to present, of which 3.4% was attributed to OA. Moreover, OA effects are exacerbated in regions with greater changes in pH (e.g., West Arctic basin), but are reduced in tropical areas where the effects of ocean warming and deoxygenation are more pronounced (e.g., Indo-Pacific). Our results enhance our knowledge on multi-stressor effects on marine resources and how they can be scaled from physiology to population dynamics. Furthermore, it underscores variability of responses to OA and identifies vulnerable regions and species.
Highlights
A direct consequence of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations is the rapid rate of ocean acidification (OA) (IPCC, 2013), causing changes to the biogeochemical composition of our world’s oceans and affecting marine ecosystem goods and services
The dynamic bioclimatic envelope model (DBEM) predicts how species abundance will change in space and time using an integrative approach by linking species distribution models (Jones et al, 2012), growth models (Pauly, 1980), physiological models (Pauly, 1981), population dynamics models (Pauly, 1980; Hilborn and Walters, 1992; O’Connor et al, 2007), and macroecological models (Cheung et al, 2008a)
We modelled the impacts of OA and climate change on 210 commercially exploited marine invertebrate species
Summary
A direct consequence of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations is the rapid rate of ocean acidification (OA) (IPCC, 2013), causing changes to the biogeochemical composition of our world’s oceans and affecting marine ecosystem goods and services. Ocean Acidification Effects on Fisheries physiological processes such as acid-base regulation, metabolism, and aerobic scope, as well as sensory abilities, reproduction, and development (Le Quesne and Pinnegar, 2012). These effects can lead to changes in population dynamics such as growth, survival, and fecundity, and affect marine ecosystem resources (Kroeker et al, 2013)
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