Occurrence of strong and very strong heat stress in Poland and its circulation conditions

Arkadiusz M. Tomczyk,Małgorzata Owczarek

doi:10.1007/s00704-019-02998-3

Abstract

The primary objective of the paper was the determination of the atmospheric circulation favouring the occurrence of strong and very strong stress of the human organism due to heat stress in Poland. The paper was prepared based on data obtained from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute and the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR). The criterion of extreme stress of the human organism adopted in the paper covered conditions in which the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) value was higher than 32 °C. The research showed a statistically significant increase in half of the analysed stations and an increasing tendency or no changes in the remaining stations. Moreover, after 1990, conditions particularly strenuous for the organism were recorded (UTCI > 40 °C) over a major part of the territory of Poland. The occurrence of days with strong and very strong heat stress in Poland was related to the presence of high-pressure systems blocking zonal circulation. The research permitted the designation of three types in which the pressure field showed common features, but differed in the location of anticyclonic systems.

Highlights

The currently observed climate changes are among others manifested in increasingly frequent occurrence of extreme weather phenomena (IPCC 2013)
Heat stress occurrence in Europe in summer show a latitude gradient, with Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) values generally increasing towards the south
Mean number of days with strong and very strong heat stress in summer determined based on meteorological data from the period 1991–2000 in Poland is from approximately 1 day at the coast to around 4 days in Warszawa, whereas in Prague and Budapest, the number of such days is approximately 9 and 20, respectively (Błażejczyk et al 2015)

Summary

Introduction

The currently observed climate changes are among others manifested in increasingly frequent occurrence of extreme weather phenomena (IPCC 2013). They determine the occurrence of extreme biometeorological conditions that affect human health and life. Due to the aforementioned changes, the issue has been the subject of numerous studies (Hajat et al 2002; Gabriel and Endlicher 2011; Bobvos et al 2015; Muthers et al 2017; Sheridan and Allen 2018). The papers usually discussed the effect of only one meteorological element, i.e. air temperature. Among currently applied indices, considering both the effect of meteorological conditions on the human organism and physiological processes, the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), with a history of already a dozen years, is increasingly popular.

Objectives

Results

Conclusion