Obtaining and Comparing Factors in Land Change Models Using One or Two Time Points Based Calibration

Abstract

A land change model can be calibrated with the state at one time point or with the difference between two time points. For a case study in Spain we obtained the collections of factors for two calibration periods at one time point (dates 2000 and 2006) and the collections of factors for two calibration periods between two time points (periods 1990–2000 and 2000–2006). We used evidence likelihood to transform the explanatory variables into factors. We then compared these four collections of factors to show: how the choice of reference maps influences the factors, how these factors highlight the change patterns in two different calibration periods and how these factors highlight the change patterns in the calibration of two models. We ended by analyzing the detailed results for the different factors and LUC categories.