Observing system simulation experiments to assess the impact of remotely sensed data on hurricane prediction

Abstract

Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) are an important tool for evaluating the potential impact of proposed new observing systems, as well as for evaluating trade-offs in observing system design, and in developing and assessing improved methodology for assimilating new observations. Extensive OSSEs have been conducted at NASA/ GSFC and NOAA/AOML in collaboration with Simpson Weather Associates and operational data assimilation centers over the last 27 years. These OSSEs determined correctly the quantitative potential for several proposed satellite observing systems to improve weather analysis and prediction prior to their launch, evaluated trade-offs in orbits, coverage and accuracy for space-based wind lidars, and were used in the development of the methodology that led to the first beneficial impacts of satellite surface winds on numerical weather prediction. In this paper, we summarize applications of global OSSEs to hurricane track forecasting, and current experiments using both global and regional models aimed at both track and intensity forecasting.