Observing system simulation experiments at Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation

Abstract

Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) are a powerful tool used to assess the potential impact on numerical weather prediction skill from planned or hypothetical future observing systems. Over the last several years an international Joint OSSE collaboration has emerged centered on the use of NASA's and NOAA's data assimilation systems. A Nature Run provided by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has undergone extensive validation, and a set of simulated reference observations have been subjected to a set of calibration experiments. One of the first candidate observing systems assessed by this system is a wind lidar based on the Global Wind Observing Sounder (GWOS) concept developed by NASA in response to the National Research Council (NRC) Decadal Survey. OSSEs were conducted at Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) and positive impacts from GWOS on medium range weather forecast were demonstrated. For OSSEs, all major observations used for the data assimilation have to be simulated as a control observation in addition to the observations being tested by an OSSE. Simulation of control observations and OSSE calibration are the most significant initial investments for an OSSE before it can be used to evaluate the data impact of future instruments. The Nature Run data and control observation that were simulated at NOAA from the Nature Run are made available from a NASA portal and NCAR for international collaborative Joint OSSEs. Recent developments and plans for a JCSDA OSSE based on a 2012 observation system will be also described.