Observer-based power forecast of individual and aggregated offshore wind turbines

Abstract

Abstract. Due to the increasing share of wind energy in the power system, minute-scale wind power forecasts have gained importance. Remote-sensing-based approaches have proven to be a promising alternative to statistical methods and thus need to be further developed towards an operational use, aiming to increase their forecast availability and skill. Therefore, the contribution of this paper is to extend lidar-based forecasts to a methodology for observer-based probabilistic power forecasts of individual wind turbines and aggregated wind farm power. To do so, lidar-based forecasts are combined with supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA)-based forecasts that advect wind vectors derived from wind turbine operational data. After a calibration, forecasts of individual turbines are aggregated to a probabilistic power forecast of turbine subsets by means of a copula approach. We found that combining the lidar- and SCADA-based forecasts significantly improved both forecast skill and forecast availability of a 5 min ahead probabilistic power forecast at an offshore wind farm. Calibration further increased the forecast skill. Calibrated observer-based forecasts outperformed the benchmark persistence for unstable atmospheric conditions. The aggregation of probabilistic forecasts of turbine subsets revealed the potential of the copula approach. We discuss the skill, robustness and dependency on atmospheric conditions of the individual forecasts, the value of the observer-based forecast, its calibration and aggregation, and more generally the value of minute-scale power forecasts of offshore wind. In conclusion, combining different data sources to an observer-based forecast is beneficial in all regarded cases. For an operational use one should distinguish between and adapt to atmospheric stability.