Observed trends in daily temperature extreme indices in Aguascalientes, Mexico

Abstract

Climate change is a pernicious and irrefutable reality. The objective of this work was to analyze trends in extreme temperature indices in Aguascalientes. With RClimdex 1.0 and data on daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin), 16 temperature indices were calculated. The trend in indices was determined with the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test (p ≤ 0.05), while the rate of change was obtained with Theil-Sen’s trend estimator. Significant positive trends were observed in 72 time series of indices associated with Tmax and in 39 time series of indices associated with Tmin. Significant negative trends were observed in 22 time series of indices associated with Tmax, and in 45 time series of indices associated with Tmin. In some regions of Aguascalientes, diurnal warming is occurring; in others, warmer or less cold nights prevail. The changes in extreme temperature indices might have severe implications in the use of irrigation water, cause physiological stress in crops, promote respiratory and cardiac diseases, and improve the reproduction cycles and populations of insects. Also, the fruit production, such as guava, could be affected under the reduction of minimum temperature, and the increase in warm days where other fruit trees are cultivated can intensify the use of chemical compensators of cold. These results are of significance for long-term economic planning and design of strategies of adaptation/mitigation to climate change. In Aguascalientes, the changes observed in extreme temperature indices could be due to climate change of a bigger scale, either regional or at the watershed level.