Observed changes in the contribution of extreme precipitation over the Zagros Mountains, Iran

Abstract

Due to global warming, precipitation regimes are expected to change, and heavy events are expected to occur more frequently. This study investigates the relative share of heavy daily precipitation events to total precipitation for past and current climates. In this regard, daily precipitation data with a spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° from the APHRODITE and CHIRPS databases are used. We used two nonparametric tests, the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator, to identify the trend. The results showed that the frequency of daily heavy precipitation has been increasing in most regions of Iran. The relative share of heavy daily precipitation events to total precipitation has increased over the southwest and central areas of Iran from a case of the past to the current climate. The rise in the share of heavy precipitation of the total precipitation has led to a decrease in the frequency of rainy days (wet days) and an increase in the intensity and concentration of precipitation in Iran. The amount of increase in the share of heavy rainfall to the total precipitation is more prominent in the middle parts of the Zagros Mountains. These conditions lead to heavy floods in the southwestern plains of Iran.