Observed changes in southwest monsoon rainfall over India during 1901–2011

Abstract

ABSTRACTThe trends and epochal variability of southwest monsoon over the country as a whole and four homogeneous regions are examined using monthly rainfall data (1901–2011) of 640 political districts of India. The district rainfall data is computed from station rainfall data. The same station data is used to analyse the trends in the frequency of rainfall events of different intensities for examining extreme rainfall events. The existence of the multidecadal epochal variability of rainfall is clearly established in the all‐India monsoon rainfall as well as monsoon rainfall over the four homogenous regions. However, over different homogenous regions, the phases of multidecadal variability are found to be different. Principal component analysis brings out Northeast India (NEI) rainfall as more dominant mode for all‐India rainfall. Significant decrease in southwest monsoon rainfall over NEI is observed during the post 1950 period. Decreasing trends are also observed over the monsoon core region during the post‐1950 period. Over these regions, monsoon rainfall has increased significantly during the pre‐1950 period. It has been shown that the decreasing trend in monsoon rainfall during the post 1950 period is the result of multidecadal epochal variability. Geographical regions that experienced significant changes in the frequency of days of rainfall with different intensities are also identified. Significant change/turning points are also detected in the southwest monsoon rainfall. Frequency of moderate rainfall events (5 mm ≤ daily rainfall < 100 mm) decreased significantly during the period 1951–2010 over the monsoon core region of India whereas no significant changes are observed in the frequencies of heavy (daily rainfall >100 mm) or very heavy rain (daily rainfall >150 mm) during the southwest monsoon season. Climatic shift or change point in monsoon rainfall in India is also detected by an established statistical test.