Observed and Perceived Climate Change and Variability and Small Holder Farmers’ Vulnerability: The Case of Janamora District, Northwestern Ethiopia

Adamsew Marelign

doi:10.7176/jees/9-8-04

Abstract

In the context of observed climate change and variability and their impact on livelihoods; This study intended to assess farmers’ vulnerability to climate change and variability in Janamora district, northwestern Ethiopia. Primary data for the study was collected through questionnaire from 138 respondents selected through multi-stage sampling technique based on agro-ecology. Secondary data was collected from meteorological stations. Mann-Kendall and Chi-square tests were employed to test observed and perceived climate change and variability respectively. While LVI and LVI-IPCC methods were used to assess farmers’ vulnerability to climate change and variability using SPSS version 23. The results revealed significant increasing trend in annual average temperature in all stations except Debark and insignificant trend in annual rainfall as well as a higher rainfall variability. Similarly, 69.6 and 80.4% of the interviewed farmers were aware of an increase in temperature and a decrease in rainfall respectively. Moreover, χ 2 test showed that a significant variation (significant at P<0.05) in perception to temperature and rainfall between agro-ecology. The overall vulnerability result in the case of LVI was 0.425, 0.454 and 0.471 for Dega, Woyna Dega and Kolla agro-ecological zones respectively. Similar result was found using the LVI-IPCC approach which was 0.035, 0.041 and 0.049 for Dega, Woyna Dega and Kolla agro-ecological zones respectively. Both LVI and LVI-IPCC results revealed that Kolla was the most vulnerable and Dega was the least vulnerable to climate change and variability. The study suggested improving the literacy level and integrating rural development schemes to increase adaptive capacity. Similarly, further studies should be conducted in the future. Keywords: Perception, Vulnerability, Climate Change and Variability, Livelihood, Janamora DOI : 10.7176/JEES/9-8-04 Publication date : August 31 st 2019

Highlights

Climate change is the most significant environmental threat of the 21st century (Edame et al, 2011)
The results revealed significant increasing trend in annual average temperature in all stations except Debark and insignificant trend in annual rainfall as well as a higher rainfall variability
Similar result was found using the livelihood vulnerability index (LVI)-IPCC approach which was 0.035, 0.041 and 0.049 for Dega, Woyna Dega and Kolla agro-ecological zones respectively. Both LVI and LVI-IPCC results revealed that Kolla was the most vulnerable and Dega was the least vulnerable to climate change and variability

Summary

Introduction

Climate change is the most significant environmental threat of the 21st century (Edame et al, 2011). The. IPCC (2001) report showed that, the global mean surface temperature has been increased by 0.6 This increasing global mean surface temperature is lead to changes in precipitation and atmospheric moisture (IPCC, 2001). Evidences indicated that the natural climatic variability in combination with climate change will adversely affect millions of livelihoods around the world (IPCC, 2007a). In Africa, mean temperature levels have increased whereas precipitation levels have declined (IPCC, 2001). Africa is the most vulnerable continent to climate change and climate variabilities (Challinor et al, 2007). Many African countries are vulnerable to climate change since their economies highly depend on climate sensitive agricultural production (Mahmud Yesuf et al, 2008). Climate change presents Ethiopian farmers and pastoralists with a new set of challenges (MOARD, 2010). It is highly connected to poverty, loss of coping and adaptive capacity (Temesgen Deressa et al, 2008; Kaur et al, 2010; Temesgen Deressa, 2010)

Methods

Results

Conclusion