Observation-constrained multicycle dynamic models of the Pingding Shan earthquake gate along the Altyn Tagh Fault

Abstract

Earthquake gates are fault geometric complexities, common in natural fault systems, that conditionally impede earthquake ruptures. This study centers on modeling of multicycle dynamics of the Pingding Shan earthquake gate along the central Altyn Tagh Fault in northwest China. The earthquake gate includes three geometric complexities: a prominent restraining bend, a 4-km wide stepover to the east, and a releasing bend to the west. We use a 2D finite element method to simulate coseismic spontaneous ruptures with interseismic fault stress evolutions computed by an analytic viscoelastic solution. Paleoseismic records and long-term slip-rates are used to constrain the models. We find that fault-geometry-related heterogenous stresses accumulated over earthquake cycles yield complex rupture patterns and help explain earthquake recurrence intervals revealed by paleoseismic records. The three most important contributions to the heterogeneous stresses come from dynamic ruptures passing fault geometric complexities, fault-strike-dependent tectonic loading and relaxation, and stress history from past earthquakes. In the Pingding Shan earthquake gate, the releasing stepover appears to impede ruptures more effectively than the restraining bend. The combined impact of the restraining bend and the releasing stepover makes the Pingding Shan earthquake gate a very effective barrier to 350-km model-spanning ruptures. The best-fit model yields a low recurrence interval of 4.6 kyrs for 350-km-long ruptures, interspersed with more frequent ruptures limited to individual fault segments. A lower static friction tends to reduce the effectiveness of the earthquake gate to impede ruptures. Local fault geometric complexities together with rapid energy release and restrengthening of friction during dynamic ruptures help explain the 0.66 recurrence interval coefficient of variation (COV) recorded at the Copper Mine paleoseismic trench site on the Xorxoli segment. This study provides a method for applying heterogenous initial stresses for single-event dynamic rupture simulations that consider the effect of past earthquakes and fault geometry.