Observational relationships between summer and winter monsoons over East Asia. Part II: results

Abstract

Using the framework presented in part I of this study, three possible summer-to-winter monsoon and four possible winter-to-summer monsoon relationships are identified. A generalized relationship between summer and winter monsoons is virtually non-existent, and some of the possible relationships are in fact tied to the influence of the El Niño–southern oscillation (ENSO). Indeed, relationships between summer and winter monsoons are specific in terms of both the winter monsoon strength and the ENSO conditions. It is found that the strength of winter monsoon is unlikely to be an important forcing regarding the possible winter-to-summer monsoon relationships, since the summer monsoon is unlikely to be weak following a non-ENSO-coupled winter monsoon, regardless of the winter monsoon strength. On the other hand, possible summer-to-winter relationships are noted only when the summer monsoon is not weak, regardless of the ENSO condition. An alternation or opposite tendency in the summer monsoon strength is noted between the onset year (tends to be unlikely weak) and the following year (tends to be unlikely strong) of an El Niño. Therefore, certain possible relationships between summer and winter monsoons are obvious when the winter monsoon tends to be weaker during the mature phase of an El Niño. For a La Niña, the signature in the summer monsoon strength is less clear, as indicated from the assessment of summer monsoon indices. Nevertheless, when the winter monsoon tends to be strong when coupled with a La Niña, the following summer monsoon also tends to be weaker. A biennial alternation of the summer and winter monsoons is noted, i.e. that a stronger summer monsoon precedes a weaker winter monsoon and a weaker winter monsoon is followed by a stronger summer monsoon. This biennial alternation is associated with a transition of ENSO warm phase to ENSO cold phase, representing the biennial signal in the interannual variability of the monsoons as well as in ENSO. Concurrent with this biennial alternation is an evident variation in the subtropical-high strength. It appears that the commonly recognized tropical biennial oscillation (TBO) is not tied to the biennial signal in the interannual variability of the East Asian monsoons, because the TBO is constituted by a strong (weak) summer monsoon followed by strong (weak) winter monsoon process. Furthermore, it is suggested that a complete biennial oscillation in the interannual variability of the monsoons is not observed because of the breakdown of a cycle (or oscillation) in the summer monsoon following a La Niña onset. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society.