Abstract
According to evolutionary theory of economic change, technology development proceeds through the periods of incremental change punctuated by the radical discontinuous shifts. However, the understanding of the timing of technological discontinuity and the factors driving the transition between technological trajectories remains incomplete. Technological variety and heterogeneity along with selection mechanism are the essential parts of technology evolution process. In this article we propose the method for the estimation of new technology emergence and the evaluation of the mechanisms of technology transitions. The method is based on the analysis of variance between leading and lagging technology frontiers and on the analysis of variance dynamics between product segments. The goal of the method is to provide the tool to company managers and technology experts for strategic technology decision making and for the analysis of technology evolution patterns and transitions in real world setting.
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