Observation of pre-earthquake thermal signatures using geostationary satellites: implications for earthquake forecasting

Abstract

For the past several decades, scientists have been exploring the possibilities of decoding the complex physical mechanism of the earthquake process using satellites and ground-based technologies. In recent years, use of satellite-based technologies has been preferred, since monitoring a broader region and round-the-clock surveillance is possible using geostationary satellites. Using sensors mounted on satellites, it is possible to observe anomalous thermal variations in both the atmosphere and the ground. Measurement of anomalous variations in outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) is one such technology used to identify earthquake preparation zones. Anomalous variations in OLR have been observed in the vicinity of the epicenter, 3 to 30 days prior to impending earthquakes. We have analyzed the OLR scenario for earthquakes with magnitude greater than 7.0 that occurred during April 2016. Analysis has been done to find the relationship between OLR flux variations and the magnitude of the earthquakes. From the analysis, we have found that the recurrence frequency of OLR anomaly and cumulative energy flux of OLR can give us vital clues about the probable magnitude of impending earthquakes.