Observation-Based Ozone Formation Rules by Gradient Boosting Decision Trees Model in Typical Chemical Industrial Parks

Abstract

Ozone pollution in chemical industrial parks is severe and complicated and is significantly influenced by pollutant emissions and meteorological parameters. In this study, we innovatively investigated the formation rules of ozone by using observation-based analyses and a gradient-boosting decision tree (GBDT) model, focusing on a typical chemical industrial park located in the Yangtze River Delta of China. The results revealed that ozone concentration was positively correlated with temperature while negatively correlated with NO2 concentration and relative humidity (RH). Ozone pollution was predominantly observed from April to October (M4–10). The optimized GBDT model was subsequently utilized to establish a specific and quantifiable relationship between each single dominant impact factor (RH, NO2, temperature, and PM2.5) and ozone within a complex and uncertain multi-factor context during M4–10. Detailed discussions were conducted on the reaction rate of ozone-related to different levels of RH and temperature. The accumulation of ozone was favored by high temperature and low RH, with the maximum ozone concentration observed at the RH of 50% and the temperature of 35 °C. The NO2-O3 change curve exhibited distinct phases, including a period of stability, gradual increase, rapid increase, and equilibrium. During the second and third periods, the ratio of ozone production to NO2 consumption was 0.10 and 2.73, respectively. Furthermore, there was a non-monotonic relationship between variations in ozone concentration and PM2.5 concentration. Hence, it is imperative to implement fine control strategies in the park, such as adopting seasonal production strategies, implementing targeted measures for controlling NOx and active VOCs, and employing special control methods during periods of high temperature. This study provides aid in achieving effective management of localized ozone pollution and ensuring compliance with air quality standards.