Objective Predictions of Thunderstorm Location and Severity for Aviation

Abstract

This paper presents a computerized technique for medium-range (12-48 h) prediction of both the location and severity of thunderstorms, utilizing atmospheric predictions from the National Meteorological Center's limitedarea fine mesh model. A regional-scale analysis scheme is first used to examine the spatial and temporal distribution of forecasted variables associated with the structure and dynamics of mesoscale systems over an area of approximately 10 km . The final prediction of thunderstorm location and severity is based upon an objective combination of these regionally analyzed variables. Medium-range thunderstorm predictions are presented for the late afternoon period of April 10, 1979, the day of the Wichita Falls, Texas tornado. The National Severe Storms Forecast Center's operational predictions are presented with the case study to demonstrate the possible application of this objective technique in improving 12-48-h thunderstorm forecasts for aviation.