Abstract
In this study, we use restlessness as an input for a rice crisis indicator, since restlessness rather than rice price provides a comparable year-to year context. We outline the significant increase in the use of unprecedented restlessness (UR) as an indicator for rice crises. The UR approach involves a precedence analysis, in contrast with the existing approach, the price shock analysis. We test UR as a new indicator for rice crises at the national level, which can be applied in Asia and other countries around the world where rice is the staple food. Strong indicators point out the effectiveness of strategic government programs and are able to assess solutions and detect rice crises, while weak indicators are only reliable in detecting whether or not there has been a crisis. UR is tested across 43 countries using two new statistics: success probability (SP) and constraint probability (CP). As a consequence of SP and CP calculations, a large number of IMR control charts for UR analysis are constructed to provide evidence that UR is a strong indicator. The optimum validity measurement result is achieved with SP = 8/26 = 0.31 and CP = 8/14 = 0.57. This means that the UR detects and is followed by only 31% of riot events. Since the value of SP is less than 0.6, we can conclude that the UR indicator is not considered valid as an indicator of rice crises at the national level. The values of CP and SP are determined subjectively as equal to 0.6. This is the main cause of the emergence of new problems in the calibration of UR as an indicator of rice crises. The subjective success criteria trigger a question regarding why the value is 0.6, for which there is no scientific justification. Based on this background, we continue to objectively establish success criteria for UR validity. After conducting a risk analysis involving a crisis recovery cost (CRC) to crisis anticipation cost (CAC) ratio, it is found that the probability of the CRC-to-CAC ratio having values greater than 7 is 0.76, which means the CRC-to-CAC ratio tends to be higher than 7. Objectively, it is concluded that UR, which has been defined as rice crisis indicator at the national level, is an important indicator.
Highlights
It is concluded that unprecedented restlessness (UR), which has been defined as rice crisis indicator at the national level, is an important indicator
The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) was originally developed in Somalia under the Food and AgricultureOrganization (FAO) Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU), which states that an area is in crisis when “at least one in five households in the area have the following or worse: food consumption gaps with high or above usual acute malnutrition; or are marginally able to meet minimum food needs only with accelerated depletion of livelihood assets that will lead to food consumption gaps” [4]
Based on the risk analysis and by calculating the probability of the crisis recovery cost (CRC)-to-crisis anticipation cost (CAC) ratio having values greater than 7, unprecedented restlessness, which has been defined as a rice crisis indicator at the national level, is an important indicator
Summary
Method for Determining the Importance of Unprecedented Restlessness as a Rice Crisis Indicator at the National Level. Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations
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