Objective identification of Mediterranean cyclones and their trajectories towards Romania

Abstract

A mathematical algorithm for the automatic detection and tracking of Mediterranean cyclones is presented. The objective of this study is identifying those Mediterranean cyclones that are engaged on various trajectories towards the countries bordering the Black Sea. Mediterranean cyclones with trajectories towards Romania have been identified from a six‐hourly reanalysis of mean sea level pressure (MSLP) data set for a period of 37 years (January 1980–December 2016) within the chosen domain 15 ° W–40 ° E/30 ° N–50 ° N. The cyclone identification was performed using a method known as calculus cyclone identification (CCI), which was adapted for the Mediterranean Sea region. The results obtained using the objective method were compared with the Mediterranean cyclone trajectory data obtained about 55 years ago by Romanian researchers who made use of subjective methods. A summary of the climatology of Mediterranean cyclones affecting Romania was also performed. To demonstrate the accuracy of the objective method adapted for the cyclones engaged on trajectories towards Romania, a subjective analysis using the potential vorticity and geopotential height fields was made. The results confirmed that the method can be successfully implemented by the Romanian Meteorological Service for the detection of Mediterranean cyclones. This method will, therefore, be a useful tool for meteorologists in their forecasting activity.