Objective determination of the onset and withdrawal of the South China Sea summer monsoon

Abstract

AbstractDetermining the timing (i.e. onset and withdrawal) of monsoon season precisely and objectively is an important yet difficult task. Conventional methods mainly define the monsoon timing as the date when the selected atmospheric variables (e.g. rainfall and wind) exceed an arbitrary threshold. These methods present little explicit justification and are subjective and sensitive to the fluctuation of the selected series. In this study, we propose an objective method to determine the onset and withdrawal of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) using the cumulative low‐level zonal wind. Our proposed approach provides an easy, objective, and applicable method that is recommended for the detection of the timing of monsoon season. On the basis of the proposed definition, the SCSSM onset and withdrawal are determined, and their accompanying processes are also examined in this paper. Both onset and withdrawal of SCSSM exhibit strong variability, and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation plays an important role. Via the modification of the western North Pacific subtropical high, a preceding El Niño (La Niña) event can delay (advance) the monsoon onset and advance (delay) the monsoon withdrawal.