Obama to Blame? African American Surge Voters and the Ban on Same-Sex Marriage in Florida

Abstract

Did African American voters—drawn to the polls by Barack Obama in 2008—cast their ballots for him and then vote to ban gay marriage in Florida, causing Amendment 2 to pass? Using original survey and county-level data, we find the linkage fails to hold. While they tend to be less supportive of marriage equality than whites, black surge voters in Florida were only slightly more likely to support a ban on gay marriage than other likely voters. In addition, we show that although counties that experienced large numbers of black surge voters did exhibit more support for Obama, they were no more supportive of Amendment 2 than other counties. Finally, we demonstrate that black voters were not responsible for carrying Florida’s gay marriage ban to passage, as it would have met and surpassed a 60-percent threshold even in their absence.