OASIS: Optimisation-based Activity Scheduling with Integrated Simultaneous choice dimensions

Abstract

Activity-based models offer the potential of a far deeper understanding of daily mobility behaviour than trip-based models. However, activity-based models used both in research and practice have often relied on applying sequential choice models between subsequent choices, oversimplifying the scheduling process. In this paper we introduce OASIS, an integrated framework to simulate activity schedules by considering all choice dimensions simultaneously. We present a methodology for the estimation of the parameters of an activity-based model from historic data, allowing for the generation of realistic and consistent daily mobility schedules. The estimation process has two main elements: (i) choice set generation, using the Metropolis-Hasting algorithm, and (ii) estimation of the maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters. We test our approach by estimating parameters of multiple utility specifications for a sample of individuals from a Swiss nationwide travel survey, and evaluating the output of the OASIS model against realised schedules from the data. The results demonstrate the ability of the new framework to simulate realistic distributions of activity schedules, and estimate stable and significant parameters from historic data that are consistent with behavioural theory. This work opens the way for future developments of activity-based models, where a great deal of constraints can be explicitly included in the modelling framework, and all choice dimensions are handled simultaneously.