Abstract
Abstract Introduction Locally advanced oesophageal adenocarcinoma is typically treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) or chemoradiotherapy (NACRT) followed by surgery. Significant benefit to neoadjuvant treatment however is confined to a minority of patients (<25%) and there are no reliable means of establishing prior to treatment in whom this benefit will occur. In this study, we assessed the utility of features extracted from high-resolution digital microscopy of pre-treatment biopsies in predicting response to neoadjuvant therapy in a machine-learning based modelling framework. Method A total of 102 cases were included in the study. Pre-treatment clinical information, including TNM staging, was obtained, along with diagnostic biopsies. Diagnostic biopsies were converted into high-resolution whole slide-images and features extracted using a pre-trained convolutional neural network (Xception). Elastic net regression models were then trained and validated with bootstrapping with 1000 resampled datasets. The response was considered according to Mandard tumour regression grade (TRG). Result There were 45 (44.1%) responders (TRG1-2) and 57 (57%) non-responders (TRG3-5) in the dataset. 34 patients (33.3%) received NACT and 68 (66.7%) received NACRT. A model trained with RNA-seq data achieved fair performance only in predicting response (AUC 0.598 95% CI 0.593–0.603), which was far exceeded by use of segmented diagnostic biopsy images (AUC 0.872 95% CI 0.869–0.875), which also produced well calibrated predictions of risk. Conclusion Despite using a small dataset, impressive performance in classifying response to neoadjuvant treatment can be achieved, particularly using automated image classification. Further study to refine the methodology is required before expansion to clinical settings. Take-home Message Response to neoadjuvant treatment for oesophageal cancer can be predicted from diagnostic biopsies
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