Nutrient supply affects the yield stability of major European crops—a 50 year study

Hella Ellen Ahrends,Stefan Siebert,Thomas Döring,Thomas Gaiser,Frank Ewert,Werner Eugster,Sabine Julia Seidel,Hubert Hüging,Victor Rueda-Ayala,Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abc849

Abstract

Yield stability is important for food security and a sustainable crop production, especially under changing climatic conditions. It is well known that the variability of yields is linked to changes in meteorological conditions. However, little is known about the long-term effects of agronomic management strategies, such as the supply of important nutrients. We analysed the stability of four major European crops grown between 1955 and 2008 at a long-term fertilization experiment located in Germany. Six fertilizer treatments ranged from no fertilization over the omission of individual macronutrients to complete mineral fertilization with all major macronutrients (nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium and calcium). Yield stability was estimated for each crop × treatment combination using the relative yield deviation in each year from the corresponding (nonlinear) trend value (relative yield anomalies (RYA)). Stability was lowest for potato, followed by sugar beet and winter wheat and highest for winter rye. Stability was highest when soils had received all nutrients with the standard deviation of RYA being two to three times lower than for unfertilized plots. The omission of nitrogen and potassium was associated with a decrease in yield stability and a decrease in the number of simultaneous positive and negative yield anomalies among treatments. Especially in root crops nutrient supply strongly influenced both annual yield anomalies and changes in anomalies over time. During the second half of the observation period yield stability decreased for sugar beet and increased for winter wheat. Potato yields were more stable during the second period, but only under complete nutrient supply. The critical role of potassium supply for yield stability suggests potential links to changes in the water balance during the last decades. Results demonstrate the need to explicitly consider the response of crops to long-term nutrient supply for understanding and predicting changes in yield stability.

Highlights

In face of climate change and an increasing global population, research on the stability of crop yields and their response to environmental perturbations is of critical importance
We analysed the stability of four major European crops grown between 1955 and 2008 at a long-term fertilization experiment located in Germany
Yield stability was estimated for each crop × treatment combination using the relative yield deviation in each year from the corresponding trend value (relative yield anomalies (RYA))

Summary

Introduction

In face of climate change and an increasing global population, research on the stability of crop yields and their response to environmental perturbations is of critical importance. For a realistic assessment of such effects they have to be observed at representative time scales (at least decades) (Hejcman et al 2012). This perspective can be provided by long-term agricultural experiments where factors such as fertilizer supply, crop species and rotation are kept constant over several decades (Rasmussen et al 1998). Little quantitative information is available on the long-term (50+ years) impact of nutrient supply on yield stability (Li et al 2019)

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