Nuptiality Transition and Marriage Squeeze in Lebanon: Consequences of Sixteen Years of Civil War

Abstract

This paper examines nuptiality Tends and patterns in Lebanon using the 1996 Population and Housing Survey (PHS), a representative sample of 64,472 households that provides the largest demographic dataset for the country since the 1932 census. There are five objectives to this study. First, to analyze the proportions of single adults by age and sex, and trends and differentials in the mean age at first marriage (MAFM) for both sexes, at the national and governorate levels. Second, to estimate the singulate mean age at marriage (SMAM) for Lebanon and for its governorates. Third, to address some important methodological concerns about the shortcomings of both the MAFM (obtained from the direct question on age at marriage) and the SMAM (computed indirectly from the proportions single) to measuring average ages at first marriage, and to suggest a new measure based upon the combination of both these estimates. Fourth, to explore whether the war had any significant impact on age at first marriage and the marriage market in Lebanon. It is observed that the proportions of single women of childbearing age doubled between 1970 (shortly before the war) and 1996 (five years after war ended). Mate availability ratios (MARs), defined as the number of single males available per 100 single females in the adult age groups, have declined to 75 at age 25 and 50 at age 30, due to a war effect. Finally, the study attempts to answer the question whether the pursuit of higher education by women may adversely affect their marriage prospects.