Numerical Weather Prediction research-to-operations updates at the US Aviation Weather Center

Abstract

The US National Weather Service (NWS) Aviation Weather Center (AWC) provides domestic and international aviation weather forecasts and warnings. The constituent Aviation Weather Testbed is a research-to-operations (R2O) facility that connects partners in government, industry, and academia to continually advance the state of the art of aviation forecast operations. Upcoming changes to the NWS rapid refresh modeling suite offer new opportunities with higher resolution, longer time range North American forecasts promising greatly enhanced gridded aviation forecasts. Work is underway to redevelop aviation postprocessing for airframe icing and turbulence, as are efforts evaluate all of the numerical output through multiple collaborative testbed experiments bringing together collaborators, aviation customers, airline representatives, university researchers, stakeholders and others, with widely varying backgrounds to demonstrate and evaluate ongoing efforts. AWC also operates one of the two World Area Forecast Centers (WAFC) in coordination with US Federal Aviation Administration in order to facilitate international flight operations. Following years of development and evaluation WAFC products are set to undergo significant upgrades in resolution and service capability in 2024. This presentation will discuss testbed evaluation findings including forecast performance, and detail upcoming improvements to products and services resulting from these advances.