Abstract
Nowadays, several dispersion models are available to simulate the transport processes of air pollutants and toxic substances including radionuclides in the atmosphere. Reliability of atmospheric transport models has been demonstrated in several recent cases from local to global scale; however, very few actual emission data are available to evaluate model results in real-life cases. In this study, the atmospheric dispersion of 131I emitted to the atmosphere during an industrial process was simulated with different models, namely the WRF-Chem Eulerian online coupled model and the HYSPLIT and the RAPTOR Lagrangian models. Although only limited data of 131I detections has been available, the accuracy of modeled plume direction could be evaluated in complex late autumn weather situations. For the studied cases, the general reliability of models has been demonstrated. However, serious uncertainties arise related to low level inversions, above all in case of an emission event on 4 November 2011, when an important wind shear caused a significant difference between simulated and real transport directions. Results underline the importance of prudent interpretation of dispersion model results and the identification of weather conditions with a potential to cause large model errors.
Highlights
In October and November 2011, increased 131I concentrations were observed at several European stations, mainly in Central Europe
Long-range simulations were performed with HYSPLIT and RAPTOR Lagrangian models to investigate the prediction of detections in Dubna (Russia) and Stockholm (Sweden), located in a distance of 1600 and 1300 km from the emission source
The arrival times were correctly predicted by RAPTOR as 9 UTC, 20 October and 19 UTC, 3 November, respectively, both times being within the sampling period of the reported detections
Summary
In October and November 2011, increased 131I concentrations were observed at several European stations, mainly in Central Europe. Stations located in the Czech Republic, Austria, Germany, Poland, Slovakia, Sweden, France, Hungary, Ukraine and Russia have measured and informed the Incident and Emergency Centre (IEC) on the detection of 131I in air samples collected over intervals of several days [1,2,3]. Measured concentration values in some European countries just reached the limit of detection and were not any health concern to the population. The measured concentrations were below the exposure limit, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has initiated an investigation in order to find out the source of the increased iodine concentrations.
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