Numerical Simulation of Variations in Ozone Content, Erythemal Ultraviolet Radiation, and Ultraviolet Resources over Northern Eurasia in the 21st Century

Abstract

The influence of different factors on the total ozone content (TOC) and erythemal UV radiation (Qery) in the atmosphere over northern Eurasia from 1979 to 2059 has been analyzed using a chemistry-climate model developed at the Institute of Numerical Mathematics (INM, Russian Academy of Sciences) and the Russian State Hydrometeorological University (RSHU). The sensitivity of modeled ozone contents to different input data on sea-surface temperature (SST) has been estimated. The TOC trends may significantly differ depending on the SSTs used. The results of the model experiment, which takes into account variations in the anthropogenic emissions of halogen-containing substances, suggest a nonlinear Qery decrease due to the recovery of the ozone layer in the 21st century. The values of Qery for 2016–2020 are 2–5% higher than its values for 1979–1983, on average, for all of northern Eurasia (with its maximum on the order of 6% in the polar latitudes). The Qery values equalize in 2035–2039 and then gradually decrease (when compared to those for 1979–1983) by 4–6% for Asia and 6–8% for northern Europe in 2055–2059. Therefore, variations are observed in the spatial distribution of UV resources, which are most significant in spring and summer: these variations are manifested in the extension of UV-deficiency zones in the north and the reduction of UV-excess zones in the south.