Numerical simulation of regional short-range climate anomalies

Abstract

With the high-speed development of numerical weather prediction, since the later 1980’s, the prediction of short-range climate anomalies has attracted worldwide meteorologists’ attention. What the so called short-range refers to the time scale from one month to one season or more. In dealing with the problem of short-range climate prediction, two points are needed noticing: one is the basic research to explore or investigate the mechanism of variability of the slow varying components which mainly include internal dynamics of cxtratropics, external forcings and tropical dynamics, and the other is the modeling efforts to simulate the process of the long-term evolution of the signal which include the improvement of model quality, stochastic prediction and the air-sea-coupled model (Miyakoda et al., 1986). Previous researches on the numerical prediction of short-term climate anomalies are mostly concentrated in the analysis of variables with global spatial scale, especially the global general atmospheric circulation analysis.