Numerical Simulation of Flood Propagation in the Kelara River Flood Early Warning System

Abstract

Flood historical data from the Kelara River in the last 10 years shows that the river has often overflowed, and the worst floods happened on January 22, 2019. One of the efforts to minimize the negative impact of a flood disaster is to conduct flood tracking. Flood tracking is an analysis of the flood along the river, or also known as flood propagation, which can be used as a reference in the preparation of a flood early warning system. This study aims to determine the propagation of the Kelara River flood which can be used to determine flood-prone areas and as a reference in the preparation of a flood early warning system. This research was carried out in 3 stages, namely flood hydrology analysis using the HEC-HMS program, numerical simulation of 2D floods using the HEC-RAS program, spatial modeling of flood-prone areas using the ArcGIS program, and preparation of a flood early warning system. The results of this study showed that the flood that occurred on January 22, 2019, was a 100-year return period flood, and determined that 10 points of residential areas/villages must be alerted when the intensity of rain is high, with the fastest time to be alerted being 52 minutes.