Numerical models for planning landslide risk mitigation strategies in iconic but unstable landscapes: The case of Cinque Torri (Dolomites, Italy)

Abstract

This study deals with the numerical modelling of large deep-seated instability processes affecting the Cinque Torri Group (Dolomites, Italy), which is a UNESCO World heritage site. The aim is to evaluate the role of intrinsic causal factors and to assess the failure mechanism proposed in previous investigations. The geological model is based on topographic, geological and geomechanical surveys, complemented with mineralogical, physical and geotechnical lab analyses for parameters determination. The numerical simulations have been carried out using a Distinct Element Method code on conceptual and site-specific slope models. A series of parametric analyses have been performed to characterize the role of the different predisposing factors potentially related with the ongoing rock spreading: i) load of the rocky pinnacles; ii) lithology, stratigraphy and attitude of the geological units; iii) discontinuity sets in the rock mass; iv) degradation of the mechanical properties. The results of this study suggest that the shear zone initiation is controlled by stress concentration due to the loading of the dolomitic pinnacles, whereas its shape appears to be structurally controlled by the dip-slope attitude of bedding in clay-rich mudstones. The interpretation of the modelling results has provided a better understanding of the ongoing deformation process, which can help in targeting effective and low-impact landslide risk mitigation strategies in this iconic landscape.