Abstract
Water scarcity periods will increase in frequency and magnitude in the near future, especially in Mediterranean regions, and proper groundwater management has been recognized as a key issue to mitigate possible impacts. In this context, numerical models acquire a special relevance to quantify the availability of water resources and predict their behavior under changing climate conditions. This work shows the procedure followed to model a mountainous fractured aquifer located in the northern Apennines (Italy) using an open source code. This aquifer feeds springs with an average discharge of about 96.8 L/s. Even though they are not exploited at the moment, these springs might represent a relevant resource of freshwater for public water supply and are essential for ecosystem sustainment. The main limitation faced to model the aquifer in a realistic way is the lack of data, which hinders the calibration of the model. A nonconventional procedure was followed to obtain information on the hydraulic parameters. The hydraulic conductivity is computed from a steady-state calibration for which a limited number of groundwater head observations are available, whilst information concerning the storage coefficient is obtained analytically from the spring discharge recession curve. Finally, the model is used for predicting the system behavior under different groundwater recharge scenarios. Numerical simulations and analytical approximations reveal that the studied aquifer can provide fresh water under different groundwater recharge conditions and has the capacity to smooth the effects of short drought periods, representing an option for water management strategies in the region.
Highlights
Pressure on freshwater resources has increased in the last decades due to the rapid population growth coupled with intense anthropogenic activities
Gattinoni and Francani [11] assessed the effects of different groundwater recharge conditions on the depletion curve of the fractured system of the Nossana spring and Dragoni et al [12] developed a numerical model of the Scirca spring in the central Apennines, which is fed by a fractured limestone massif, to test the efficiency of various management schemes on the water resources
The percentage of variation in the groundwater recharge refers to the average groundwater recharge (1.6 mm/d)
Summary
Pressure on freshwater resources has increased in the last decades due to the rapid population growth coupled with intense anthropogenic activities (i.e., agricultural and industrial processes and/or high urban water supply demand). Groundwater bodies will be affected by changes in groundwater recharge and by the increment of irrigation demand [4], which will altogether contribute to the progressive drying of aquifers In this context, it is of paramount importance to foresee the effects of climate change and water demand on groundwater in order to properly manage this valuable resource and face possible future drought periods [5,6]. Gattinoni and Francani [11] assessed the effects of different groundwater recharge conditions on the depletion curve of the fractured system of the Nossana spring (northern Italy) and Dragoni et al [12] developed a numerical model of the Scirca spring in the central Apennines, which is fed by a fractured limestone massif, to test the efficiency of various management schemes on the water resources. Liuzzo et al [13] investigated different groundwater recharge conditions in Sicily, showing a worsening of water stress due to a negative trend in precipitation and an increase in evapotranspiration
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