Abstract
Cold waves commonly occur in higher latitudes under prevailing high pressure systems especially during winter season which cause serious economical loss and cold related death. Accurate prediction of such severe weather events is important for decision making by administrators and for mitigation planning. An Advanced high resolution Weather Research and Forecasting mesoscale model is used to simulate a severe cold wave event occurred during January 2006 over Europe. The model is integrated for 31 days starting from 00UTC of 1 January 2006 with 30 km horizontal resolution. Comparison of the model derived area averaged daily mean temperatures at 2m height from different zones over the central Europe with observations indicates that the model is able to simulate the occurrence of the cold wave with the observed time lag of 1 to 3days but with lesser intensity. The temperature, winds, surface pressure and the geopential heights at 500 hPa reveal that the cold wave development associates with the southward progression of a high pressure system and cold air advection. The results have good agreement with the analysis fields indicates that the model has the ability to reproduce the time evolution of the cold wave event.
Highlights
Advance information of extreme weather phenomena such as cold waves is very important to avert their adverse impact on the life and economy of a given region
Final analysis (FNL) data available at 1 degree horizontal resolution to assess the skill of the model in capturing the time and intensity of the cold weather event
The simulation was conducted to examine the performance of the model on the prediction of the cold wave passage over Central Europe region with a single domain of 30 km resolution and updating the lateral boundary conditions once every 6 hours to represent the change in the outer atmospheric condition at that interval
Summary
Advance information of extreme weather phenomena such as cold waves is very important to avert their adverse impact on the life and economy of a given region. The synoptic methods bank upon systematic analysis of large-scale trends of the dynamical systems based on a series of observation charts called the synoptic charts This method is subject to the skill of the interpreter and cannot be applied for time periods beyond a few days due to the inherent variability of the atmospheric system. The GCMs find a limited application when it comes to the disaster mitigation and decision making aspects where much finer quantitative predictions along with precise time of occurrence of a weather event is the necessary key information required by the administrators. The availability of regional models with horizontal resolutions of 30–50 km permits simulating the fine scale seasonal weather patterns to study the regional climatic characteristics more precisely.
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