Numerical Modeling of the Natural and Manmade Factors Influencing Past and Current Changes in Polar, Mid-Latitude and Tropical Ozone

Sergei Smyshlyaev,Vener Galin,Polina Blakitnaya,Andrei Jakovlev

doi:10.3390/atmos11010076

Abstract

A chemistry–climate model of the lower and middle atmosphere is used to compare the role of natural and anthropogenic factors in the observed variability of stratospheric ozone. Numerical experiments have been carried out on several scenarios of separate and combined effects of solar activity, stratospheric aerosol, sea surface temperature, greenhouse gases, and ozone-depleting substances emissions on ozone for the period from 1979 to 2020. Simulations for the past and present periods are compared to the results of ground-based and satellite observations. Estimates of observed trends in column total ozone for the entire period 1980–2018 and separately for the late twentieth and early twenty-first century are presented.

Highlights

The change in the content of atmospheric ozone, which protects life on Earth from the harmful effects of the hard part of the ultraviolet radiation of the Sun, has attracted the attention of scientists and policymakers for many years in connection with the observed negative trends in ozone global content since the early 1980s [1,2,3,4,5]
If we use our trend estimates from the three aforementioned periods, we find that the linear trend coefficient for 1980–1995 is −0.35 Dobson units (DU) per year with probability density function (PDF) = 0.98 (i.e., a 5% significance level), and the coefficient for 1995–2000, when there was a sharp increase in the total ozone content, was 0.87
The study of the column ozone in the tropical, mid, and polar latitudes is presented for the period from 1980 to 2018

Summary

Introduction

The change in the content of atmospheric ozone, which protects life on Earth from the harmful effects of the hard part of the ultraviolet radiation of the Sun, has attracted the attention of scientists and policymakers for many years in connection with the observed negative trends in ozone global content since the early 1980s [1,2,3,4,5]. In this regard, attention has concentrated on the impact of anthropogenic factors associated with industrial and household emissions of chlorine and bromine gases (ozone-depleting species—ODS) into the atmosphere, contributing to the destruction of the ozone layer. The magnitude, significance, and even sign of the trend over the last period can change significantly with each additional year of observation, so despite previously published results of ozone trend estimates, new results that take into account recent measurements may be useful to the scientific community

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Conclusion