Abstract
AbstractThe chapter solves the problem of numerically predicting the parameters of a business process model (using the cost example) without using multi-pass simulation models. To solve this problem, an apparatus of stochastic GERT networks is used. The edge of the GERT network is associated with the operation of the business process, and the node of the GERT network is associated with the event or branching of the business process. An algorithm for translating a business process model into an equivalent GERT network is given, as well as calculating the parameters of the business process cost distribution law based on the resulting GERT network. The proposed approach allows us to solve the problems of predicting the dynamics of discrete-event models described in standard model notations (IDEF3, ARIS EPC) without using multi-pass simulation models.KeywordsBusiness processSimulation modelARIS eEPCGERT
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