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Abstract
Meteorological data concerning the severe convective system from the 21 August 2007 are analyzed in this study. Compiled information allows to understand the reason for the storm development and to identify its fundamental convective mode. Next, the EULAG model is utilized to perform an idealized test that shows a downwind–developing storm growth in an environment comparable to the one that was observed on the 21 August 2007 in the Masurian Lake District. Finally, the COSMO numerical weather prediction model is applied to reconstruct the storm development. The experiment is carried out for various computational grids having the horizontal grid length between 7.0 and 0.55 km. It turns out that the COSMO model is capable in simulating storms of that type. Since the model is used for operational weather forecasting in Poland the evaluation of this skill contributes to the increase of public safety.
Highlights
Deep moist convection brings several hazards to the safety of people and property
The ultimate goal of this study is to perform an assessment of the Consortium for SmallScale Modeling (COSMO; www.cosmo-model.org) numerical weather prediction (NWP) model capabilities in midlatitude deep moist convection forecasting over Poland
The 12:00 UTC sounding from Legionowo provided basic information about the upperair conditions in the warm sector of the low. This sounding, depicted in the form of a Skew-T diagram in Fig. 2, shows atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) spanning between the surface, i.e. 96 m above sea level (ASL), and around 800 m ASL which is capped by around 4oC inversion layer with about 18% drop in relative humidity
Summary
Deep moist convection brings several hazards to the safety of people and property. Dangerous convective events are commonly named as severe convective storms or systems (SCS). The ultimate goal of this study is to perform an assessment of the Consortium for SmallScale Modeling (COSMO; www.cosmo-model.org) NWP model capabilities in midlatitude deep moist convection forecasting over Poland. Climate-change-related increase in frequency of severe weather events over Europe is considered to be likely [3], so their skillful forecasting should be a priority For this purpose, a reconstruction of the severe storm from the 21 August 2007 with COSMO NWP model is undertaken. In the last section collected meteorological data are utilized to design an idealized test that models quasi-linear convective system propagation This approach facilitates better understanding of the 21 August 2007 storm and provides guidelines for semi-realistic numerical reconstruction of the storm.
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