Numerical investigation of the impact of uncertainties in satellite rainfall estimation and land surface model parameters on simulation of soil moisture

Abstract

This study aims at evaluating the uncertainty in the prediction of soil moisture (1D, vertical column) from an offline land surface model (LSM) forced by hydro-meteorological and radiation data. We focus on two types of uncertainty: an input error due to satellite rainfall retrieval uncertainty, and, LSM soil-parametric error. The study is facilitated by in situ and remotely sensed data-driven (precipitation, radiation, soil moisture) simulation experiments comprising a LSM and stochastic models for error characterization. The parametric uncertainty is represented by the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) technique, which models the parameter non-uniqueness against direct observations. Half-hourly infra-red (IR) sensor retrievals were used as satellite rainfall estimates. The IR rain retrieval uncertainty is characterized on the basis of a satellite rainfall error model (SREM). The combined uncertainty (i.e., SREM + GLUE) is compared with the partial assessment of uncertainty. It is found that precipitation (IR) error alone may explain moderate to low proportion of the soil moisture simulation uncertainty, depending on the level of model accuracy—50–60% for high model accuracy, and 20–30% for low model accuracy. Comparisons on the basis of two different sites also yielded an increase (50–100%) in soil moisture prediction uncertainty for the more vegetated site. This study exemplified the need for detailed investigations of the rainfall retrieval-modeling parameter error interaction within a comprehensive space-time stochastic framework for achieving optimal integration of satellite rain retrievals in land data assimilation systems.