Numerical implementation of a backward probabilistic model of ground water contamination.

Abstract

Backward location and travel time probabilities can be used to characterize known and unknown sources or prior positions of ground water contamination. Backward location probability describes the position of the observed contamination at some time in the past; backward travel time probability describes the amount of time prior to observation that the contamination was released from its source or was at a particular upgradient location. The governing equation for backward probabilities is the adjoint of the governing equation for contaminant transport, but with new load terms. Numerical codes that have been written to solve the forward equations of contaminant transport, e.g., the advection-dispersion equation, can also be used to solve the adjoint equation for location and travel time probabilities; however, the interpretation of the results is different and some new approximations must be made for the load terms. We present the governing equations for backward location and travel time probabilities, and provide appropriate numerical approximations for these load terms using the cell-centered finite difference method, one of the most popular numerical methods in ground water hydrology. We discuss some additional numerical considerations for the backward model including boundary conditions, reversal of the flow field, and interpretation of the results. We illustrate the implementation of the backward probability model using hypothetical examples in one- and two-dimensional domains. We also present a three-dimensional application of a pump-and-treat remediation capture zone delineation at the Massachusetts Military Reservation. The illustrations are performed using MODFLOW-96 for flow simulations and MT3DMS for transport simulations.