Numerical avalanche prediction: Bear Pass, British Columbia, Canada

Abstract

A numerical avalanche prediction scheme offering prediction rates greater than 70% is presented for the Bear Pass highway operation, British Columbia. One-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and canonical discriminant analysis are used to identify the principal variables that allow discrimination between avalanche and non-avalanche time periods. The optimum variable set is then used in a discriminant analysis to classify each time period into an avalanche or a non-avalanche period. The analysis is performed for all areas in a combined analysis and also for individual sub-areas defined within the Pass. Improvements on classification rates to three out of the four sub-areas are observed compared to the analysis for the whole Pass.