Abstract
As devastating and unpredictable tsunamis generated by underwater earthquakes are occurring more frequently, the need for tsunami disaster prevention measures is rapidly increasing. In this study, tsunami heights were estimated, and the best-fit distribution was examined through a combination of numerical analyses and statistical methods. A numerical model was employed to estimate the tsunami heights, and the parameters were estimated using the method of L-moments applied to the estimated tsunami heights. The best-fit distribution was determined by applying the estimated parameters to the L-moment ratio diagram. The study areas were the Imwon Port and the Sadong Port located in the eastern part of the Korean Peninsula. The tsunami height distribution was represented by a log-normal distribution for the Imwon Port, whereas the distribution was represented by a generalized Pareto distribution for the Sadong Port. The study indicates that the distribution most commonly suggested by previous studies, i.e., the log-normal distribution, is not always accurate. Therefore, when performing statistical analysis on tsunami heights, the assumption of a log-normal distribution should be considered carefully.
Highlights
The increasing frequency of earthquakes in the regions ranging from South and Central America to North America, and the Kyushu and Honshu regions of Japan in recent years has caused a growing concern over the so-called 50-year period theory, which suggests that large earthquakes occur approximately every 50 years in the circum-Pacific seismic zone, which is referred to as the Ring ofFire [1]
To select the best-fit distribution of the tsunami heights obtained through such numerical modeling, we applied the L-moments method and the L-moment ratio diagram
We used the method of L-moments to calculate the parameters of the best-fit distribution of the tsunami heights
Summary
The increasing frequency of earthquakes in the regions ranging from South and Central America to North America, and the Kyushu and Honshu regions of Japan in recent years has caused a growing concern over the so-called 50-year period theory, which suggests that large earthquakes occur approximately every 50 years in the circum-Pacific seismic zone, which is referred to as the Ring of. For past tsunami events, the tsunami heights were estimated using numerical model experiments or statistical analysis methods. Applying statistical methods to predict tsunami events in the East Sea is difficult, given the very few past events as well as the lack of data. In this study we predicted the maximum tsunami heights caused by the initial waveforms of virtual tsunamis and applied statistical analyses for the Imwon Port, which is the most susceptible to damage by an unexpected tsunami in the East. For the Sadong Port, which is scheduled for a new airport construction For both cases, we combined numerical modeling with statistical analysis methodology. To select the best-fit distribution of the tsunami heights obtained through such numerical modeling, we applied the L-moments method and the L-moment ratio diagram
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